The two biggest prediction markets in the world, Polymarket ($1.9B) and Kalshi ($132M), have taken $2B in trades on the World Cup winner market. It is now the second most-traded event on the platforms, ahead of who will be crowned NBA Champion, but still lagging behind the 2024 US Election.
The World Cup market is expected to be the biggest betting event in history. Analysts have suggested figures could be 43% higher than at the last World Cup. The 2022 event, held in Qatar, saw $35B of bets placed globally.
The rise of prediction markets
This year's figure will be boosted by trades placed on prediction markets. Polymarket and Kalshi launched in 2020 and 2021, respectively. But the platforms did not become mainstream until two years ago, when they accurately predicted a Donald Trump election victory and took more than $3.6B in trades.
In early 2024, markets saw less than $100M of monthly volume. By the November election, the figure was $4B a month, and by the end of 2025, prediction platforms were taking over $12B a month. The industry is expected to reach $1T annual volume by 2030.
Prediction market growth is a global phenomenon, but it is concentrated in the US. Sports betting is illegal in 11 states, and heavily restricted in others. Currently, prediction markets are treated as trading and governed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
President Donald Trump reiterated the Government's position on the platforms, posting on his Truth Social site: "It is critically important that the CFTC's exclusive authority over prediction markets is maintained and that they will thrive."
The US's betting and prediction market positions explain why platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket see the biggest spikes around US-centric markets. The US election remains their single biggest event with $3.6B traded.
Meanwhile the NBA champion market has attracted $1.7B in volume, with other popular markets, including the 2028 Democratic nominee and the 2026 Super Bowl Champion, also attracting serious money.
The World Cup effect
However, a growth in the popularity of soccer in the US, coupled with the massive global appeal of the World Cup, has seen this year's event become one of the biggest on the platforms.
So far, it has taken around $2B, pushing it ahead of the NBA Champion market. With five weeks and approximately 100 matches left, it will likely overtake the US election as the biggest prediction market ever.
This year's World Cup is being hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico - the first time it has been co-hosted by three nations.
It has been expanded to include 48 national teams, up from the 32 in previous tournaments, and the new roster introduces a 32-team knockout round. An additional 40 games will be played across the five-week tournament, extending the world's biggest sports event by 10 days.
It is set to be the biggest gambling event in history as well as the biggest betting market the world has ever seen.
