Prediction markets are user-created markets that allow for the trading of shares. The shares are Yes/No contracts based on the outcome of real world events. The main advantage of prediction markets over traditional sportsbooks is the lack of a house edge, you trade directly against other users.
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
No Purchase necessary. ; new users must make a first-time deposit. Milly Bucks have no cash value. Bonus entries are not cash, must be played through 1x within the turnover period (14 days unless otherwise stated), can't be used on prediction picks or entries paying under 2x, and are forfeited if unused. All 20 questions must be completed within 60 days. 18+ (19+ AL, NE; 21+ AZ, MA, VA). Must be physically present in an eligible state. Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
New users only, 21 and older. One offer per person. Minimum $10 deposit; no qualifying trade and no playthrough requirement. The bonus is issued as five $10 Trade Credits, each used in full on a single trade (one credit per trade). Trade Credits apply to contracts priced between $0.01 and $0.60. Each credit expires 30 calendar days after issue. Winnings are withdrawable; the credits themselves are not. Full details in the New Member Deposit Program Terms & Conditions.
Prediction markets are platforms where outcomes are traded via Yes/No contracts, priced between $0.00 and $1.00 to reflect the likelihood of an outcome. If a contract is priced at $0.70, the market implies a 70% chance of that event happening. Winning contracts settle at $1.00; losing contracts settle at $0.00.
BonusFinder Tip
With a sportsbook you play against the house edge and cannot cash out before settlement. Sportsbooks also cannot legally cover culture, politics and the broader markets that prediction platforms offer.
Are Prediction Markets Legal?
Yes, prediction markets are legal in the US and are regulated by the CFTC. They operate as federal financial instruments rather than wagers, similar to trading stocks. Because they fall under federal rather than state jurisdiction, they are legal in many states where sports betting is not. A few operators take a different route: Novig runs on a sweepstakes-based model rather than CFTC contracts, which changes where and how it is available.
Most platforms are unavailable in the following states: AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MO, NV, NJ and OH.
BonusFinder Tip
The minimum age requirement is 18+ across the country, however always check your state's rules before registering.
Best US Prediction Markets in October 2026
Prediction markets in the US are federally regulated trading platforms that allow you to buy and sell Yes/No contracts on real-world events. There's no house edge and prices move in real time to reflect the implied probability of an outcome. Additionally, ou can sell your position before an event resolves, meaning you can lock in profit before the result is confirmed.
You can predict the outcome of markets including sports, politics, economics, crypto, culture and more.
Platform
Best For
Welcome Offer
Fees
Min. Deposit
Kalshi
Overall
Up to $500 trading bonus
~1-3%
$25
Polymarket
Sports & Trending Markets
$50
0%
$10
ProphetX Prediction
Crypto Users
$75 bonus
N/A
$10
Underdog Predict
Beginners
50% deposit match up to $1,000
N/A
$10
Novig
Sports
$25
N/A
$10
Kalshi: Best Overall
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and has the widest market range available. Players can make transactions using debit cards, bank transfers, PayPal, Venmo and crypto. New players receive a $10 trading bonus and can join from as little as $1.
Widest market range of any CFTC-regulated platform
Multiple deposit methods including PayPal, Venmo and crypto
Minimum deposit of just $1
Payouts in as little as 90 seconds
Variable fees of approximately 1-3% depending on the market
Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MO, MT, NV, NJ or OH
Polymarket: Best for Sports and Trending Markets
Polymarket has the highest number of users of any prediction market platform. They re-entered the US market in 2025 via QCX LLC, a CFTC-regulated DCM. You can access the app using a code to skip the waitlist and start trading right away. Markets cover politics, crypto, culture and more.
All trading is done in USDC, but you can deposit and withdraw using crypto, card and bank transfer via MoonPay and Robinhood. Fees are negligible when using crypto and payouts are typically under 24 hours.
0% trading fees
Largest global user base of any prediction market platform
Wide market range covering politics, sports, crypto and culture
Fast payouts, usually under 24 hours
All trading requires USDC (no direct fiat trading)
Currently invite-only in the US
Not available in AZ, CT, IL, MA, MD, MI, NV or OH
Underdog Predict: Best for Beginners
Underdog is ideal for beginners, using a simple buy-sell model. There are also parlay-style combos which will be familiar to DFS players. New players can get a bonus of up to $75 when making a $5 trade, with a minimum deposit of $10.
Simple buy-sell model ideal for first-time traders
Parlay-style combos familiar to DFS players
Low $10 minimum deposit
Not available in MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH or PA
How to Get Started on Prediction Markets
Choose your platform from the comparison above
Sign up and verify identity; government ID required on all CFTC platforms
Deposit; Kalshi accepts fiat, Polymarket requires USDC or crypto
Browse markets and place your first trade
Sell early or hold to settlement
Last updated:
FAQs
What are prediction markets and how do they work?
Prediction markets let you buy and sell contracts on the outcome of future events, such as elections, economic data, or sports. Each contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not, so the price, quoted in cents, reflects the market's implied probability. You can sell a contract before the event resolves to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
Are prediction markets legal in the US?
Yes, at the federal level. However, some states challenged sports-related contracts in 2025, leading to some states restricting particular sites/ prediction markets altogether.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally, no. CFTC-regulated event contracts are treated as financial derivatives under commodities law, not as bets under state gambling law, which is what lets them operate nationwide. Functionally, trading on a sports or event outcome can feel similar to betting, and critics argue the line is thin, but the legal classification is different.
What are the best prediction market platforms in the US?
Kalshi is the largest fully CFTC-regulated US prediction market, covering economics, politics, weather, culture and sports. Polymarket is the biggest platform globally. Others active with US traders include Underdog, Prophet X Prediction and Novig. The right choice depends on the markets you want and the fees and limits each platform sets.
How are prediction markets different from sports betting?
Prediction markets are peer-to-peer. You trade contracts against other users at a price set by supply and demand, and the platform charges a fee rather than acting as the house and setting the odds. Because they are federally regulated, they operate in states where online sports betting is not legal, and you can exit a position before the event ends.
Do I pay taxes on prediction market profits?
Yes. Profits are taxable income, and platforms such as Kalshi issue tax forms like a 1099 for reportable activity. Because these are financial instruments rather than casino games, the tax treatment can differ from casino winnings, so keep records of your trades and consult a tax professional for anything significant.
What is the minimum deposit and how do I start?
Deposits are low. Kalshi lets you start with as little as $1, while Polymarket and some other platforms set around $10. To begin, open an account, complete identity verification, deposit funds, then buy contracts on the events you have a view on. You can hold a contract to settlement or sell it early on the open market.
How old do you have to be to use prediction markets?
You must be at least 18 to trade on Kalshi and most US prediction markets, with identity verification required before you can deposit or trade. That is younger than the 21 age limit for regulated online casinos and most sportsbooks, since prediction markets are regulated as financial products rather than as gambling.
Jack has worked in online gambling since 2022, first as a copywriter for a casino operator before joining BonusFinder as a casino editor in 2025. He tests every casino hands-on, from sign-up to withdrawal, and draws on direct industry experience to explain how bonuses, game mechanics, and platform terms actually work in practice.
Lucy leads the news desk at BonusFinder and has a wealth of knowledge and experience in the B2C and B2B gambling industries. A slot aficionado at heart, she's the go-to woman for everything casino.
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