Just days after reporting that the 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to create up to $50B in worldwide betting volume, investment research group Macquarie has revealed that the US will contribute an "insignificant" proportion of global wagering activity, even when accounting for prediction markets.
According to the group's data, around $500M is expected to be wagered worldwide per match during this summer's tournament in North America. However, Macquarie Managing Director Chad Beynon has this week described that domestic gambling will contribute a small measure of total volume - and even major US growth would not meaningfully influence the nation's global contribution.
US betting "quite insignificant" on global scale
Despite hosting the World Cup alongside Mexico and Canada, Beynon argues that any growth in US World Cup betting would be trivial when compared to the wider international market.
"Our (Macquarie) per-match forecast of $500m (per game) is a global forecast," Beynon told Gambling Insider.
"Since we estimate that the US only represents ~5% of legal global betting volume during the World Cup, even if we assumed 40% growth in the US, it would be quite insignificant."
If accurate, Macquarie data suggests that up to $2.5B will be wagered by US users between June 11 and July 19.
These figures align with the firm's expectations ahead of the 2022 World Cup, where pre-tournament forecasts pointed to $500M being wagered per fixture. Despite similar per-match activity this year, markets are set to benefit from an expanded 48-team competition and 40 additional games.
More games, weaker volume?
Although Macquarie estimates that 2026 World Cup wagering should achieve similar figures on a per-game basis as Qatar's rendition of the tournament four years prior, Beynon warns of a possible detrimental impact on game betting as a consequence of increased game saturation.
"Since there are more games being played, volume per match is likely more spread out over the course of the tournament, which could have a downward impact on per-match volumes."
In effect, he envisages an outcome where users opt to distribute wagers across games, thinning individual match volume.
Domestic sports betting expansion since 2022 is not expected to significantly influence per-game activity, with Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina and Massachusetts just some noteworthy new gambling markets.
The nation has also seen prop bets, live betting and same-game parlays gain traction post-2022 – but again, Beynon says these factors will not carry a consequential impact on global sports betting figures.
Black market activity not included in report
Discussing forecasts produced ahead of the 2022 World Cup, Beynon verified that Macquarie did not consider offshore or black market volume within its projections. That year, Macquarie published a pre-World Cup study detailing around $35B in global betting engagement.
"We estimated close to $600B-$700B total of legal sports betting wagers in 2022. We assume that during the World Cup time period, 50% of total wagers placed globally will be on World Cup games," said Beynon.
That data serves as a baseline for Macquarie's 2026 World Cup projections and, like 2022, this summer's expectations are solely informed by regulated activity.
Nearly 50% of growth to stem from prediction markets
Beynon – who has operated as a Macquarie Group analyst since 2007 – attests that although prediction platforms will continue to attract new users, the most substantial expansion will be driven by states where traditional online sportsbooks are not available.
His stance is simple: those already familiar with online sports betting apps will continue to prioritize existing sportsbook interactivity over the likes of Kalshi or Polymarket:
"Our base case is that users who are already accustomed to (online sportsbook) apps will stick with them."
Populous states such as California and Texas remain without legal sports betting frameworks. Yet, due to prediction markets being federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), platforms offering sports event contracts are allowed to serve users located in states where traditional operators are unavailable.
As such, users in those states can access 'yes' and 'no' event contracts tied to outcomes across the World Cup, domestic sports and other non-sporting categories.
That fact stands as the driving force behind Macquarie prognostications suggesting that most US sports betting-adjacent growth will stem from states where conventional gambling is illegal:
"We believe the vast majority of their sports growth will continue to come from ~40% of the US population that does not have access to legal sports betting apps, as the products are still quite differentiated," determined Beynon.
No prediction market forecasts… yet
Despite in-house forecasts pointing to major growth within the prediction markets sector, Macquarie has not yet designed a predictive model for sports trading derivatives. As a result, the company cannot disclose specific volume estimates for prediction platforms.
Tangible figures have emerged during the opening week of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, though, as Wall Street capital research group Bernstein reported record volume for Kalshi and Polymarket on June 12.
Specifically, Bernstein data describes that approximately $4.8B in trading volume was seen on the second day of the tournament, just via Robinhood alone – more than double the figure documented on the opening matchday. By contrast, Super Bowl LIX saw $1.4B in trading activity.
Bernstein also noted that the World Cup could create $10B in prediction market trades by July 19, with Robinhood and DraftKings pinned as key industry winners.
These findings come at a critical period for traditional gambling operators and prediction platforms, with recent polling showing that event contracts are quickly becoming the first-choice option for younger users.
If the data provided by Macquarie and Bernstein is accurate – and sports predictions generate $10B in volume compared to $2.5B at sportsbooks – this World Cup could mark a turning point in the industry's most intense battle to date.
