The US, Canada and Mexico are set to jointly host 104 matches during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as 48 nations battle for soccer's most prestigious award. Whilst we await the tournament the Opta supercomputer has calculated which nations have the highest chances of winning the World Cup alongside prediction markets.
This year's competition is one of several firsts; it is the first World Cup to be co-hosted by three countries, the first to comprise 48 teams and the first to feature more than 100 fixtures. And, with none of the 2026 host nations previously being crowned World Cup winners, this rendition provides an opportunity to triumph on home soil – a feat not achieved since France in 1998.
Ahead of the tournament's inaugural matchup on June 11, sports analytics provider Opta has prompted its 'supercomputer' to simulate the 2026 World Cup 10,000 times using objective data.
Meanwhile, prediction platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi and Fanatics Markets continue to welcome trades on which team will come out on top in East Rutherford on July 19, effectively serving as a litmus test for public opinion.
BonusFinder, an online casino comparison website, uncovers whether Opta's intricate data analyses mirror fan expectations across prediction markets.
Opta data: Host nations are down, but not out
According to Opta's in-house simulations, Team USA stands as the likeliest host nation to win the entire competition. Mauricio Pochettino's side carries a 1.2% chance of ending the summer as world champions.
Also of note is that the US has an estimated 76.8% probability of entering the knockout rounds, and a 19.4% probability of qualifying for the quarter-finals. Even when evaluating the team's chances of making it to the semi-finals (8.2%), simulations point to tangible progress.
For Canada and Mexico, expectations are somewhat dampened.
Despite Mexico boasting improved odds of entering the knockout rounds (52%) compared to the USMNT, El Tri is only given a 1% chance of ending the tournament with gold medals. Similar is true for Canada, who reached the Round of 32 in 79.3% of Opta simulations but only won the competition in 0.5% of trials.
If the Opta supercomputer is accurate, the 2026 FIFA World Cup harbors significant disappointment among domestic supporters expecting success from North America's home outfits.
Are prediction market prices reflecting Opta simulations?
While Opta's simulations are not privy to contemporary information and can only leverage existing data, prediction markets directly reflect the court of public opinion – which is often informed by injury updates, latent form, unexpected results and surprise team omissions.
Polymarket, Kalshi and Fanatics Markets – the latter of which penned a deal with FIFA and Predictstreet to create an officially dedicated World Cup Hub - are actively taking trades on outright World Cup winners. Users of these platforms choose to back 'yes' or 'no' outcomes tied to whether a team will win the World Cup, with prices fluctuating depending on trade volume.
At Polymarket, where predictions on the USA to win the World Cup are being traded at $0.012, users largely agree with the expectations set out by Opta's supercomputer. In turn, predictions on the US not to win the tournament sit at $0.98 per trade.
Kalshi users are slightly more optimistic about the USMNTs World Cup foray, at $0.014 per trade backing the 1994 hosts to win this year's iteration.
By contrast, Fanatics Markets users are trading the USMNT to win the World Cup at $0.03 – an increase of nearly 115% compared to the same market at Kalshi and 150% against Polymarket's options.
Canada and Mexico not favored
Fanatics Markets also offers hiked prices for Mexico ($0.03) and Canada ($0.02) to win the tournament compared to those listed on Kalshi; Mexico is listed on-par with the USMNT ($0.014), while Canada is priced at $0.003 on Kalshi.
Polymarket is also downplaying Mexico's ($0.012) and Canada's ($0.004) World Cup chances.
The takeaway is quite clear: Fanatics Markets users anticipate a significantly more meaningful push from the World Cup host nations this June and July – the operator's prices are decidedly misaligned with Opta's supercomputer – than those trading with Kalshi and Polymarket.
European and South American nations projected to win by Opta
UEFA Euro 2024 winners, Spain, enter the 2026 World Cup as Opta's favorites to lift the trophy come mid-July. With a 16.1% chance of being crowned world champions, Luis de la Fuente and co. are just over three percentage points more likely to win than the supercomputer's next favorite, France.
Defending World Cup champions Argentina and 1966 victors England each won the tournament in over 10% of simulations, followed by Portugal (7%), Brazil (6.6%) and Germany (5.1%).
A major drop-off is seen thereafter; only the Netherlands and Norway possess a probability of more than 3%.
France leads prediction markets despite Opta data
Two-time World Cup winners France are projected to return to Paris with the FIFA World Cup Trophy in hand across Kalshi and Polymarket, with both platforms listing Les Bleus at $0.17 to win.
Meanwhile, France and Spain are inseparable at Fanatics Markets, showcased at $0.19 apiece. England and Portugal are next in line across all three prediction platforms.
But it is Brazil's pricing that is most salient. Although supercomputer simulations saw the five-time World Cup champions clinch a sixth title just 6.6% of the time, Fanatics Markets lists the Selecao level with Argentina – who won in over 10% of simulations – at $0.10.
Kalshi ($0.086) and Polymarket ($0.085) have also raised their respective trading valuations for Brazil; Carlo Ancelotti's side are almost 48% more likely to win the tournament than Germany according to both operators. For Opta, Brazil's relative advantage over the 2014 champions is closer to 12%.
It's also worth noting that Opta attributes a 0% chance of winning the World Cup to: DR Congo, Qatar, Cape Verde, Haiti and Curacao.
Strikingly, Fanatics Markets lists Haiti to win at $0.02 – equalling Canada's price. Neither Kalshi or Polymarket have Opta's least-likely tournament winners at more than $0.003.
Users across World Cup host cities and beyond can trade on tournament outcomes until July 19, with Polymarket, Kalshi and Fanatics Markets publishing futures, props and combination selections, throughout the near-six-week competition.
