With the Kalshi controversey up in the air, casino bonus comparison site BonusFinder reveals all. The notorious US prediction platform has enjoyed notable success in 2026. In February, the operator broke records https://www.bonusfinder.com/news/sports-betting/prediction-market-kalshi-broke-us-betting-app-record-ahead-of-super-bowl-lx for app downloads ahead of the NFL Super Bowl, with over three million installs.
That growth prompted a site-wide slowdown, forcing Kalshi's Co-Founder and Chief Operating Officer (COO), Luana Lopes Lara, to explain the situation in a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
But with great success comes increased scrutiny. Kalshi has sat at the heart of discourse surrounding the integrity and legality of events-based contracts trading – and this week, Lopes Lara hit back at Kalshi's critics…
Kalshi under fire for under-regulation
At 29-years-old, Lopes Lara overtook Taylor Swift to become the world's youngest self-made female billionaire.
The Brazilian native founded Kalshi alongside fellow MIT student Tarek Mansour in 2018 and, for years, the platform operated quietly under the radar.
However, the last two years have seen near-exponential success for the trading platform, as the addition of sports and popular events contracts - where users buy 'shares' on a particular outcome – garnered significant traction across the US.
For competitors and analysts, amid this rapid growth stands a major question mark over regulation.
Certain sectors of the traditional gambling space argue that prediction platforms provide unlicensed, unregulated and wholly illegal sports betting products. By contrast, Kalshi says that its Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulation represents a sufficient basis to serve sports and events derivatives.
Criticism came to a head this week, when media outlet Bloomberg published a story admonishing the under-regulation of modern prediction markets.
Lopes Lara did not take kindly to the piece.
Lopes Lara slams gaming industry
Just five hours after Bloomberg's story went live, Lopes Lara posted a retort of her own on X:
"Bloomberg praises the "consumer protections" of the... gaming industry where companies like BetMGM have been accused of sending marketing emails to entice 14-year-olds.
"Every gambling operator limits winners while preying on losers, their KPI is simple: make customers lose more. Meanwhile Kalshi welcomes winners: has nationwide self-limits, self-exclusion, responsible trading tools - and no house targeting consumer losses.
"Bloomberg, you're one of the most trusted sources of news that I read, please do better research."
Not only did Lopes Lara's public rejection of Bloomberg's opinion piece send a clear message to the outlet – it struck at the heart of key criticisms pointed toward modern sportsbooks.
Moreover, her post touched on the lack of gambling controls at major US sportsbooks; many domestic operators have yet to integrate meaningful self-limiting tools.
USA's approach to problem gambling
In 2024, a Reuters report lifted the veil on the United States' lagging, reactive approach to problem gambling.
That story honed in on the fact that although British operators impose specific restrictions by default and may intervene early, US platforms – often owned by the same conglomerate - are renowned for moving too slowly before taking preventative action on those who may be over-extending when gambling online.
Some States, such as Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Michigan, have begun rolling out responsible gambling frameworks over the last year – but with well over half of the nation now exposed to sports betting, there exists a clear need to widen that limited net of proactive states.
It must be noted that although BetMGM took the brunt of her attack, there is no substantial evidence to suggest the operator actively sends marketing emails to minors at this time.
Why did Bloomberg's story hit a nerve?
Bloomberg's piece, titled 'Chaotic prediction markets need reining in', described in no uncertain terms that prediction markets constitute traditional gambling:
"These companies are engaging in sports gambling and other wagering that bears little resemblance to traditional commodity-market trading", wrote the platform's Editorial Board.
From there, the piece targeted three more pertinent areas in which prediction platforms either take advantage of flailing systems or bypass player safety regulations.
- State law advantage: Bloomberg argues that while Kalshi generated around 90% of revenue from sports trading, traditional, law-abiding competitors have been "clobbered" by dwindling stock prices.
- Youth exposure: The article lambasts Kalshi and Polymarket, by name, for offering sports derivatives to those aged 18 to 21 – meanwhile, sportsbooks are typically only available to individuals aged 21 or older.
- Trading partnerships: Kalshi is accused of blurring the lines between "brokerages and bookies" by signing accords with the likes of Robinhood.
But the above are minor accusations compared to the main point: Bloomberg effectively states that prediction platforms serve as a hotbed for corruption and insider trading.
War trading a money-making issue for prediction platforms
As far as player safety measures go, Lopes Lara is correct – Kalshi does support reliable self-limiting tools not widely standardized at US sportsbooks.
But that was not necessarily the central issue in Bloomberg's piece. And that may reveal the COO's explosive online response.
On February 28, 2026, a US-Israeli joint operation conducted the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a barrage of airstrikes. The mission succeeded insofar as ensuring Khamenei's demise.
However, it also saw Polymarket take more than $500m in wagers on whether Khamenei would be out of power by the date of his death, and earned a $700,000 payday for one of the platform's customers.
Users were allowed to trade on a similar market on Kalshi, but the operator later confirmed that it would not settle positions on outcomes dependent on any person's passing. Instead, Kalshi stated that outcomes tied to death would resolve based on the last price offered:
"If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve upon the confirmed reporting of the death, based on the last traded price prior to death. If that price is unclear, the Outcome Review Committee will determine a fair market value."
Tarek Mansour, Lopes Lara's aforementioned Kalshi founding partner, explained on X that all funds used to buy losing positions tied to Khamenei's standing would be reimbursed.
"We (Kalshi) decided to reimburse out of pocket for all fees and all net losses from trading in the market: 1. If you sold for a net loss before settlement, we reimbursed you for that net loss.
"And 2. if you didn't recoup your position cost during settlement, we paid you the difference so you get your full position cost back."
For Lopes Lara, Bloomberg's stance may have provoked an unfortunate realization that although Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and did not fully indulge in war-adjacent markets – neither can be said for offshore competitor Polymarket – her company will remain the primary focus of ethical questions posed by domestic outlets for as long as the market expands.
