Fresh analysis from the regulatory intelligence firm Gaming Compliance International (GCI) has indicated that the unregulated online gambling sector processed an estimated $5.9T in wagers in 2025.
That tally for global wagers would give the underground market a bigger GDP than every country in the world except the United States and China.
GCI's 'Online Gaming 2025: Global' report covers the wide illicit gambling market across sportsbooks, online casinos, poker, crypto gambling and lottery products.
Despite the increase and greater focus on regulation in various international markets, the total handle of the unregulated online platforms has increased from $5.1T in 2023 and $5.7T in 2024, with growth slowing to about 4% last year but still adding hundreds of billions in annual handle.
The new study from GCI reflects a fragmented industry where licensed operators capture just 22% of global gross gaming revenue (GGR), while unregulated players command 78%.
The analysis highlights structural weak points that legalization efforts have struggled to correct.
Essentially, the argument from the regulated sector and their representative bodies is that the authorities can't control what they cannot see.
One of the largest economic systems in the world
"At $5.9T in wagering value, unregulated online gambling is one of the largest economic systems in the world, operating largely outside regulatory oversight," said Matt Holt, CEO of GCI.
His contribution to the report added: "What this report makes clear is that regulators are not facing a marginal challenge, but a dominant one.
"The majority of activity is occurring beyond the regulated perimeter."
As stated at the outset, the $5.9T handle dwarfs many national economies.
The United States leads the way with its GDP of approximately $30T and China's comes in at around $19T in 2025 estimates.
No other nation exceeds $5T.
While the handle, the total amount wagered, is not directly equivalent to GDP, because money cycles through multiple bets, GCI describes it as 'one of the planet's largest economic flows and the biggest form of cybercrime globally.'
Three-tier marketplace analyzed by GCI
A key innovation in GCI's latest analysis is its shift from a binary regulated/unregulated perspective to a three-tier model: regulated, unregulated and "unacknowledged."
The third category includes social casinos, sweepstakes platforms, skins trading in video games, TikTok contests, pseudo-financial products and the rising proliferation of prediction markets.
These products and their associated platforms replicate core gambling functions but often evade traditional gambling classifications.
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are treated as financial products under US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight domestically, but fall into unregulated gambling territory elsewhere.
A number of disputes are ongoing on the wider situation around prediction markets.
Recently, the CEO of Vanguard warned about the lack of knowledge surrounding the products.
Conversely, the acceptance of the platforms appears to be growing, as evidenced by Kalshi's partnership deal with Madison Square Garden.
Ismail Vali, president of GCI, described a "white noise marketplace" where consumers experience little distinction between licensed and unlicensed options:
"The audience does not distinguish between these sectors. They experience one marketplace, where everything is accessible and everything competes equally," he said.
"In a world where you can bet on anything, consumers are increasingly betting on everything. This is the gamification of everything."
Prediction markets have gained significant traction, with Polymarket attracting significant institutional interest, including a $2B investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) last year.
GCI also estimated that $3.1B in prediction market volume was tied to this year's Super Bowl alone, with much of it flowing to unregulated outlets.
Structural challenges across jurisdictions
The imbalance of the wider gambling market is particularly strong in the US. Previous studies from groups such as the American Gaming Association have highlighted hundreds of billions in illegal wagers.
Unregulated platforms benefit from unrestricted cross-selling of sports betting, casino games, poker and other products on single sites.
They also utilize unrestricted advertising, including heavy placement on illegal sports streams, and the ability to operate without KYC or responsible gambling requirements.
This is a big trade-off. It's a win-win for the operator and can be a major lure for the user, but the latter has zero protections or support to fall back on.
Licensed operators in fragmented jurisdictions, such as the disparate US state-by-state system, face limitations on cross-product promotions.
The rising interest in online gambling
Growth drivers for the unregulated online market include rising smartphone penetration, crypto payment facilitation and the post-pandemic expansion of online entertainment.
Illegal streaming of niche, or even fabricated, events has further fueled the ecosystem, sometimes laced with malware and scams, according to industry observers.
There have even been instances of bets being taken on live traffic and how many cars will pass a particular light.
GCI warns that the expansion of these "unacknowledged" segments accelerates consumer confusion and risks, including the potential for higher addiction levels and money laundering.
There is the added scope of further lost tax revenues for governments, which generally isn't a consideration for unlicensed operators.
Calls for enhanced enforcement
Vali and Holt have advocated a 'MPEO' framework: monitor, police, enforce and optimize - urging regulators to gain full visibility into the total marketplace rather than focusing solely on licensed segments:
"You can look at any online marketplace in the world today and say most of them are in a state of chaos. It is a normal situation to be in a plus 65% or 70% control by unregulated gambling across the world," detailed Vali.
"Legalization alone will not remove or reduce unregulated gambling," added Holt.
The report from GCI arrives amid ongoing global debates over gambling policy.
Jurisdictions from Brazil to parts of Europe and Asia continue to grapple with how to balance revenue generation, consumer protections and market control and reach.
New wave of gambling leaving more holes for illegal operators to enter
In the States, discussions around prediction markets and crypto gambling add further complexity.
Industry analysts say the findings challenge assumptions that broader legalization would naturally shrink the black market. Instead, GCI data suggests unregulated operators have maintained or expanded dominance in many areas due to superior accessibility, product variety and marketing agility.
As the 2026 FIFA World Cup approaches, regulators and licensed operators face pressure to address the scale of activity occurring without legal oversight.
The surge is unlikely to be diminished in the short term.
Vali's quote on "the gamification of everything" highlights the need for solutions in order to effectively address the ongoing rise of the $5.9T unregulated online gambling sector.
