The World Cup is under way, and prediction markets are rife. All the host nations have played. Mexico kicked off the tournament with a 2-0 win against South Africa. The US romped to a 4-1 victory against Paraguay, while Canada managed a 1-1 draw with Bosnia.
While we haven't even made it through the first set of group games, there have already been upsets. Qatar's 1-1 draw with Switzerland, although surprising, was overshadowed by Cape Verde's goalless draw with early tournament favorites Spain.
World Cup winner predictions
Spain entered their first game as marginal favorites, at least in the eyes of prediction market punters. Before kick-off, they had 16.3% of the market share on Polymarket, ahead of France's 16.1%.
Now, ahead of their first game against Senegal, France have become the favored team; 17.6% of the market believe they will win the tournament, while Spain's chances have dropped to just 14.1%.
Further, orediction market users have obviously seen something in England's preparations to put them off. Before the tournament, the Three Lions were ranked third favorites with a 10.8% market share, ahead of Portugal's 10.2%.
Now, despite neither team having played a match, they've been given a 9.7% and 10.8% chance, respectively.
Golden Boot predictions
In the hunt for the Golden Boot, the market has remained relatively stable in the buildup to the event.
Kylian Mbappe has 16% of the vote, having scored 25 goals in the last season and playing for one of the tournament favorites. The French captain scored eight goals in Qatar 2022 to take the accolade, and punters fancy him to hold on to the award.
Amongst those standing in his way is Harry Kane. The English forward scored 36 goals for Bayern Munich last season, meaning he was easily the most prolific scorer in Europe's top leagues. But he will need to improve on the two-goal tally from the last World Cup.
Kai Havertz and Erling Haaland both have around 9% of the market.
Market divergence
The 24-year-old US striker Folarin Balogun's two-goal salvo, in his opening match, has seen him enter the fray as a surprise package.
He has also split prediction markets.
Polymarket traders only give him a 4% chance of prevailing, with Lionel Messi, Michael Olise, Cristiano Ronaldo and Ousmane Dembele all ahead of him.
Kalshi, on the other hand, has him placed directly behind Haaland with 6% of wagers.
Prediction market boom
While there have been reports of underwhelming support for the World Cup in the US, the same isn't true on prediction markets. Polymarket is the biggest platform and has seen $2.5B traded on the World Cup winner market alone. Millions are also being bet on individual matches.
Although smaller, as it is primarily US-based, Kalshi's market has performed strongly too, with more than $310M placed on the outright winner. In total, the two platforms have attracted more than $3B in trading - a figure that is likely to grow substantially, as the tournament still has another month to play.
The US election holds the record for the biggest ever prediction market, with $3.6B of trades - the World Cup looks almost certain to overtake that.
