The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to be the most lucrative event in US sports betting history, according to reports released by two internationally-recognized market research firms: H2 Gambling Capital and Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG).
According to EKG estimates, this summer's World Cup could see up to $4.4B in wagers spent at US sportsbooks - eclipsing figures for both March Madness and Super Bowl LIX. That projection represents a best-case scenario for gaming operators, in which Team USA enjoys a deep run during the tournament.
Meanwhile, H2 expects US wagering revenue ($2.9B) to surpass joint World Cup hosts Mexico ($2.5B) and Canada ($300M).
Sportsbook revenue expected to double compared to last year
While domestic sportsbooks reported $1.3B in wagers throughout June and July, 2025, the 2026 World Cup is forecast to at least double that figure for the same period this year.
That is according to H2 Gambling Capital - which described that although soccer betting will comprise the smallest industry market share compared to Mexico and Canada, the size of the US market should allow for the most sizable operator earnings.
Specifically, H2 states that the US alone is anticipated to form almost 5% of the $60B in estimated worldwide sports betting handle, with Mexico and Canada increasing global market coverage among host nations to around 10%.
It should be noted that H2 did not include earnings derived from prediction markets in its international study; the firm acknowledged the increasing popularity of such markets in the US but does not expect that these platforms will have a "material impact" on global soccer betting handle for the 2026 World Cup.
EKG report: Between $2.32B and $4.33B to be spent this summer
California-based financial analytics company, EKG, explained that the US market should realize between $2.32B and $4.33B as a consequence of the World Cup being held in North America.
As reported by ESPN, achieving revenue at the highest end of that scale would surpass the estimated $3B wagered during March Madness. Even if the firm's lowest expectations are to be met, the World Cup would outperform Super Bowl LIX ($1.7B) for total money wagered.
EKG described that the likeliest outcome - an USMNT tournament exit at either the Round of 32 or Round of 16 - would result in $2.82B being spent by US sportsbook users.
As such, the most significant windfall would be pulled from an extended World Cup run by Mauricio Pochettino's men.
Market leaders speak on World Cup handle expectations
DraftKings and FanDuel are projected to dominate domestic betting handle throughout the World Cup, with EKG data suggesting that the pair will take a combined 70% share of all US soccer wagers between June 11 and July 19.
Greg Karamitis, DraftKings Executive Vice President and General Manager of sports, confirmed that the World Cup will change market behavior this year:
"In general, the summer tends to be quieter. Injecting the World Cup into it totally reshapes the field of sports for the summer," said Karamitis.
FanDuel Managing Director, Karol Corcoran, detailed that her team is prepared to make significant investment in a bid to maximize consumer value and bolster the operator's US presence:
"We're taking a big swing from a generosity and a marketing aspect. I have conviction that this will be a big deal for the category. The way we're approaching the World Cup, we think it's an opportunity to change the trajectory of our soccer business in the US"
More World Cup games to guarantee revenue boom?
Due to there being 16 more teams and 40 additional fixtures during the 2026 FIFA World Cup compared to the previous seven tournament iterations, sportsbooks will be able to offer a greater number of total markets for the competition.
BetMGM Chief Revenue Officer, Matt Prevost, candidly expressed excitement at the prospect of this year's wider tournament, as well as a possible domestic boom in handle, should the USMNT progress beyond the group stage:
"We have a lot more matches and a lot more countries of interest," Prevost said. "From a betting perspective, my goodness, if the US could get out of the group stage, that would be terrific - for the sport of soccer in the US and, more specifically, for BetMGM."
But H2 Gambling Capital warned that revenue predictions were stringently associated with the performance of host nations, branding premature eliminations from the World Cup as "a drag on total wagering activity."
The London-headquartered group also verified that revenue earned via the 2026 rendition of soccer's major international tournament will rest on the shoulders of game favorites, primarily driven by an uptick in player and match prop bets, as well as single-game parlays, since the 2022 World Cup.
On a worldwide scale, H2 forecasts a 71% proliferation in consumer betting over 2022's performance.
Prediction market revenue also predicted to rise
As prediction platforms continue to experience steep growth in the US, research outfit DeFi Rate revealed that the domestic sports derivatives market could exceed $2.5B through World Cup interactivity. At $1.47B, Kalshi is projected to welcome around 58% of all trading volume.
Cheryl Shepstone, Director of Content at DeFi Rate, clarified that the vast majority of individual match trading will be transmitted on game day, with around 80% of contracts tied to precise game outcomes.
DeFi Rate evaluated $2.44B in trading volume spanning 7,550 markets and 9.8m individual trades to determine its findings.
The firm recognized that, with no historical data at hand, "there is no precedent" for US market volume.
Still, the group's report precedes a potential crossroads for the sports betting and trading industries. If prediction markets are to achieve DeFi Rate's proposed figures - and possibly match or outperform the lower end of EKG's scale - increasing questions and mounting pressure will be laid against the traditional online sportsbook market.
