Alongside US sportsbooks, prediction markets continue their huge rise in success during this year's Super Bowl. As the Seattle Seahawks celebrated their victory, having won the game 29-13, to lift the Lombardi Trophy for the second time, Kalshi celebrated a significant milestone of its own too.
The US-based platform saw three million app downloads in the weeks leading up to the event, marking the first time any sports wagering or similar app has ever reached that milestone.
The Super Bowl is one of the biggest annual betting events, with millions of Americans wagering more than a billion dollars collectively every year. It's traditionally a busy time for sportsbooks looking to attract new bettors.
This year, Super Bowl fever has also spread to include prediction markets - services that accept event contracts and serve as an alternative to sportsbooks, especially in states where gambling is restricted.
Kalshi Super Bowl LX success
According to Bloomberg, Kalshi was the main benefactor of this year's Super Bowl buzz, making $1.2bn off the event. The New York-based service saw three million downloads in January, alone, compared very favorably with the one million downloads each for DraftKings and FanDuel.
The figure means Kalshi has outperformed any sportsbook or real money gaming app – none of which have ever enjoyed such a large monthly download figure.
The success comes on the back of the Super Bowl buzz, as well as other mitigating factors: prediction markets being treated as trading apps, their burgeoning popularity over the past 12 months and the simplicity of their user interfaces.
Around two out of three of US states currently regulate mobile sports betting, enabling residents to place sports bets via mobile phones and computers. But that still leaves tens of millions of potential bettors previously unable to enjoy the experience of placing wagers on events like the Super Bowl.
Prediction markets like Kalshi are federally recognized as trading platforms, which means they don't fall under state gambling body remits. Even states like Hawaii and Utah, which ban all forms of gambling, cannot stop users from accessing and trading on Kalshi.
Kalshi vs Polymarket
In 2024, Kalshi's competitor and fellow prediction market, Polymarket, more accurately predicted the election results. This saw mainstream and mass media pay greater attention to their potential.
Platforms like Kalshi offer more affordable and faster alternatives to bespoke surveys. They have gained a lot of press coverage, giving them substantial exposure.
Prediction markets are effectively reskinned betting exchanges. Participants trade against other users, rather than against bookmakers. But the contracts they offer are binary. That means they have a 'yes' or' no' outcome.
This offers a much simpler alternative to sportsbooks, which typically promote proposition and multi-legged bets.
Kalshi still faces struggles
Kalshi hasn't had everything its own way, and states are fighting back. In January, Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell successfully secured an injunction against Kalshi, prohibiting it from accepting sports wagering and related contracts from customers in the state.
Kalshi is appealing the decision, but Judge Christopher Barry-Smith rejected a request to enable the platform to keep offering contracts during the appeal.
The prediction platform's uptick in January downloads also translated to increased trading during Super Bowl LX. According to figures released by the platform, users placed more than $1.2m on Super Bowl-related contracts.
While the majority of trading activity was on who would win the game, the platform also saw significant interest in the halftime show's first song, by Bad Bunny, as well as which companies would advertise during the event.
