From surprise election outcomes, to dramatic crypto collapses, Polymarket traders have a reputation for predicting the improbable. As February 2026 gets underway, some of the platforms' most active markets are making bold, and sometimes bizarre, predictions.
How Polymarket predictions work
Polymarket is a prediction market where users wager real money on the outcome of future events, ranging from politics and economics to crypto prices and pop culture moments.
Each market poses a simple 'Yes' or 'No' question, and traders buy shares based on how likely they think a particular outcome is.
The price of a share shows the market's collective belief. For example, if a 'Yes' share is trading at $0.30, the market is basically assigning a 30% chance that the event will occur.
As new information emerges, such as: breaking news, data releases, leaks, or any other type of significant announcement, the prices will move in real time as traders change their opinions on the markets.
Unlike traditional opinion polls, Polymarket predictions are backed by financial incentives, meaning its users have something to lose if they get it wrong. While these markets are far from flawless, they often provide a snapshot of the current crowd sentiment - and sometimes, a surprisingly accurate glimpse into the future.
February's wildest Polymarket predictions
Zohran Mamdani to open a city-owned grocery store by June 30 - Polymarket odds: 14% (Yes)
Before winning the 2025 NYC Mayoral election, Zohran Mamdani proposed creating city-owned grocery stores across the city to combat rising prices. This concept has long circulated in US politics, and now Polymarket traders are betting that Mamdami will actually make it happen by June 30.
City-owned grocery stores are still quite the experimental concept in the US, often facing regulatory hurdles, political resistance and logistical challenges.
Opening one by the deadline stated would require fast-tracked approvals, secured funding and a reliable supply chain, which is no easy feat in a city as large as NYC.
Supporters behind the market point to rising food prices, increased scrutiny of corporate grocery chains across New York, and the US, and Mamdani's vocal support for public-interest economic policies.
Potential pilot programs and pop-up models could allow a city-backed store to launch in a limited form, technically meeting the market criteria.
However, any delays around such as staffing, compliance and procurement could easily push any opening past the stated deadline.
Another US Government shutdown by February 14? - Polymarket odds: 62% (Yes)
Government shutdowns have become an increasingly familiar feature of US politics, and traders are wagering on whether lawmakers will fail to reach a funding agreement before Valentine's Day on February 14.
A shutdown this early in the year would signal a rapid breakdown in negotiations and could spell trouble for federal services, financial markets as well as the general public's confidence in the Government.
The reasons for those betting 'Yes' points to looming budget deadlines and recent brinkmanship that has put pressure on negotiations. With little incentive for compromise in such a divided environment, even short-term funding gaps can trigger a shutdown nowadays.
However, last-minute deals are common, and political pressure often increases as deadlines approach. The odds for this one reflect uncertainty rather than inevitability
Elon Musk # tweets February 5 - February 7, 2026? - Polymarket odds: Market varies by range
One of the site's more unconventional offerings is a market tracking Elon Musk's tweet count over three days. Whilst this might seem trivial, the billionaire's online activity frequently moves markets, influences news cycles and - of course - sparks plenty of controversy.
Some traders analyze: Musk's historical posting patterns, major announcements regarding his plethora of business endeavors and some even go as far as looking into his travel schedule.
Periods of heightened activity on his X account usually correlate with earnings, product launches or public disputes.
However, it's no secret that Elon is unpredictable. One viral moment, or even a sudden silence, can completely upend expectations. It's safe to say that this market is definitely more entertainment-driven than analytically sound.
Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator sale price - Polymarket odds: Split across price brackets
Internet celebrity and WWE wrestler Logan Paul broke world records for the most expensive private sale of a Pokémon card in 2021 - purchasing a PSA 10-graded 'Pikachu Illustrator' (1998) for $5.3m. However, almost five years later, Paul has passed the card over to Goldin Auctions, putting it back up to be bidded for.
Pikachu Illustrator cards are among the rarest Pokémon collectibles ever produced, but this particular card - being celebrity-owned - introduces a new hype factor that defies traditional valuation models for these kinds of collectibles.
What is likely to be a record-breaking sale would further inflate an already thriving market. The theory proves true, as at the start of February, the current bid sat at over $6m.
Supporters argue that Paul's brand, combined with the card's rarity and 2026 marking Pokémon's 30th Anniversary, will attract ultra-wealthy collectors willing to pay a premium price.
However, collectibles markets can cool quickly, and with bidding still open until February 16, there's more than enough time for the tables to turn.
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? - Polymarket odds: 1% (Yes)
We've heard all the jokes about GTA 6 being postponed (again), but some people are worried about something different: how much will the game cost when it eventually goes on sale?
Traders are betting on whether Rockstar Games will shatter pricing norms by launching the title at $100 or more.
Whilst the price of video games has been steadily increasing, a $100 base price would represent a significant shift for the gaming industry, and would most certainly spark backlash from players.
Rising development costs, inflation and the game's enormous scope could lead to a significant price hike, with some theorizing that Rockstar could: bundle online content, offer early access or charge exclusive prices to justify the high price.
However, others believe that Rockstar could risk damaging goodwill with aggressive pricing, especially after what feels like countless delays… So whilst a premium edition might cross the $100 mark, many feel like the standard edition releasing at that price is a long shot.
Will Trump sue Trevor Noah by March 31? - Polymarket odds: 14% (Yes)
Few global figures are as litigious as Donald Trump, making this prediction somehow both improbable and strangely probable. The US President has most recently taken to Truth Social to claim he'll be suing comedian Trevor Noah over a quip made at the 2026 Grammy Awards.
"Song of the Year - that is a Grammy that every artist wants almost as much as Trump wants Greenland, which makes sense because Epstein's island is gone, he needs a new one to hang out with Bill Clinton", remarked Noah as he hosted the awards.
As mentioned, Trump is no stranger to legal threats, especially against critics and media figures… Whilst high-profile lawsuits can also double as political messaging, many argue that defamation standards, free speech protections and the reputational cost of such a lawsuit make this outcome unlikely.
Polymarket 2026 so far round-up
From city-owned grocery stores, to $100 video games and celebrity lawsuits, Polymarket's February 2026 markets paint an interesting picture of what traders think the future
might hold.
Which of these predictions would genuinely shock you if it came true?
And which one might not be as crazy as it sounds?
One thing is for sure: when real money is on the line, even the wildest concepts can start to feel plausible.
